|
What we do
Money is the root of all good in the world. Virtue consists of
allegiance to existence; it consists of a man's recognizing facts
and then acting accordingly.
In "Atlas Shrugged", Ayn Rand defines 6 major derivatives of the
virtue of rationality. Miss Rand did not regard this list as necessarily
exhaustive or the order of its items as logically mandatory. Her
concern was not to cover every application of virtue, but to identify
the essentials of rationality in the most important areas and
aspects of human life. This is the minimum moral knowledge needed
by a man if he seeks to follow reason consistently, as a matter
of principle, in his daily choices and actions.
The 6 derivative virtues are independence, honesty, justice, productiveness,
integrity and pride. Patience, persistence, persevarance and determination
are some of the other important virtues. A widespread vice, which
represents the destruction of all of these virtues, is the initiation
of physical force against other men. One requires all of the virtues
mentioned above to be successful, but they themselves do not determine
your destiny; money alone does, or rather how you manage your
money does.
WE ARE NOT Financial Planning/Financial Management/Wealth Management/Asset
Management/Commodity Trading Advisors. We are not related to any
Financial Institutions, Spread Betting groups or the like. We
do NOT express opinions. We have no inside information or hot
tips and do not welcome such sources. We are not engaged
in the business of selling systems.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com is dedicated to shaping the destiny
of men (nations/institutions) which is, was, will be, and had
to be, the destiny of his (its) money or rather how he (it) manages
his (its) money and therein lies the holy grail; for no man (nation/institution)
may be smaller than his (its) money.
We shape the destiny of nations, institutions and men by predicting
the direction of a wide range of markets and identifying the most
profitable investment trading opportunities on a daily basis.
Our Stock Market Database contains more than 20,000 Stocks. Stocks
information will be updated before 11 PM EST Daily.
There is always something going on especially within the ebb and
flow of the markets. The Stocks to watch for posted daily should
keep you focused on the expected action and out front of the gibbering
hordes during Earnings Season.
A-American Stock Exchange, N-New York Stock Exchange, O-Over-the-counter/NASDAQ,
ASX-Australian Stock Exchange, LSe-London Stock Exchange and XET.
Our FX database has over 72 FX pairs. Currently 72 FX Pairs are
tracked and traded. The FX information will be updated before
9:00 PM EST Daily.
Our Futures database has over 131 major futures Contract specifications.
Currently 67 major Futures Contracts are tracked. The Futures
information will be updated before 11:00 PM EST Daily.
Our mission: to help investors achieve superior performance, one
day at a time... by understanding the macro drivers that move
markets recognizing the fact that in the markets, everything is
"possible", but only a few may be "probable"
within a 95% confidence level.
Our tools: Active Model Position trades along with Position (bet)
Size from the principal and research advisor Pal Anand.
Our model: a free-markets supply-side view of politics, policy,
economics, technology, and markets themselves -- the factors that
set major trends in motion by influencing the incentives and barriers
to wealth creation by economic producers.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com is a Financial Market Research and
Consulting Service providing exclusive, accurate, market-focused,
market analysis and daily position trades to the high-net worth
individuals (investment professionals, professional traders, accredited
investors) and institutional (brokers, proprietary traders, hedge
fund and asset managers) investment community.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com
approach identifies market risks and opportunities using a top-down
and bottom-up analytical model that emphasizes the incentives
to wealth creation and capital formation facing economic producers
who operate in an environment of ever-changing domestic and global
political trends. We rely on forward-looking market indicators
recognizing that market prices -- correctly analyzed in their
interaction with macroscopic developments -- contain the information
required to shape an optimal portfolio selection strategy.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com takes a philosophical,
consistent, and disciplined
approach to investing based on sound fundamental analysis and
independent research.
We take a combined top-down and bottom-up approach to investing
- that is, we believe that a clear understanding of the macro
economic environment is very important to determine the portfolio's
sector weighting, combined with detailed analysis and selection
of superior investment opportunities which demonstrate a combination
of the following characteristics:
* superior cash flow and earnings growth.
* low price-earnings and cash flow multiples.
* sound business models.
* strong management teams.
*
strong dividend policy in the form of a strong dividend yield.
*
strong earnings yield.
*
reasonable dividend payout.
*
relative strength
* under-valued or over-valued securities in favorable macro economic
sectors.
taking into account:
liquidity: Current Ratio, Working Capital.
solvency: Debt-to-Equity Ratio.
efficiency: Gross Margin, Total Asset Turnover.
profitability: Earnings Per Share, Net Profit Margin,
Operating Margin, Return on Assets, Return on Equity.
stock price: Price to Book Value, Price to Cash Flow,
Price Sales Ratio, Price Earnings Ratio, Cash flow Per Share.
misc:
Dividend Yield, Dividend Payout, Earnings Yield, Growth to PE
Ratio
If you want to watch economic indicators for signs of where the
market is going, I recommend you concentrate on these 17: Car
Sales, Purchasing Managers’ Index, Employment, Producer Price
Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Starts/Business
Permits, Consumer Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, GNP, Personal
Income/Consumer Spending, Index of Leading Indicators, New Home
Sales, Merchandise Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, Factory
Orders, and Business Inventories/Sales.
At theRootofAllGoodisMoney.com, the decision to sell is as important
as the decision to buy. An individual security is sold (or sold
"short") when its price reaches a level that no longer reflects
its fundamental valuation, or the company management structure
changes, or the underlying investment assumptions are no longer
valid.
The expertise of theRootofAllGoodisMoney.com principal establishes
the foundation for an analytical discipline employing a macro,
top-down, bottom-up perspective in a framework tailored to the
asset allocation challenges facing investment professionals.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com is uniquely positioned to provide
high value-added in the quest for superior returns with an approach
geared to the portfolio investor’s need to choose from among competing
asset classes on a risk/reward basis.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com’ rigorous methodology is grounded
in use of market signals to determine where likely economic events
and trends have yet to be fully discounted in market prices. We
believe financial markets are efficient processors of the information
available to them at any given time. It is also the case, though,
that analysis of current prices can expose expectations of future
prices that have not yet been fully absorbed. As well, prices
in certain market segments can be more information-sensitive than
others, exposing risks or opportunities not yet reflected in the
market as a whole. By focusing on the signals sent by fixed income,
equities, currency and commodity markets, and the interactions
among them, TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com approach discovers uncaptured
market opportunities and spots unrecognized downside risks.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com’ client services are delivered primarily
through collective2.com e-mails as well as through regularly scheduled
conference calls.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com
and Collective2.com web site features unique commentary and analysis,
as well as the opportunity for clients to interact online with
the theRootofAllGoodisMoney.com principal.
About the Model Positions
Model Position Policy
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com Model Positions are representative
positions that put our best economic forecasts to work. These
are not recommendations to buy or sell specific securities, nor
are they personalized investment advice.
Here are the rules the Model Positions follow:
We update the status each position at the end of every day.
We consider
our system as the most robust method in the world.
The above method(s)
is/are among the best-performing (Hot Hands) methods at collective2.com
Welcome
to the most robust method in the world. Purpose - maximize
Expectancy Score(ES). We are not engaged in the business
of selling systems. Most orders @ Mkt. Read nothing;
listen to no one except your signals. These methods now has improved
entry timing rules to better control risk.
Objective
method of issue selection: be greedy/fearful/hopeful when others
are fearful/greedy/hopeless & vice-versa (Reason); Trial periods
are not necessary because of the Predominantly Market
Orders (true Independence), good Realism Factor (Honesty), Average
Trade ($), Average Trade (%), Average Trade Confidence Level,
P/L per unit: (Reliability), Return On (starting) Equity: (true
Productiveness), Sharpe Ratio: (true Integrity), Max(true or realized
or actual) DrawDown: (true Pride), Profit Factor(W:L ratio), Expectancy/$risked
(true Self-esteem), Expectancy Score (Objective or purpose - to
strive for the highest return at the lowest relative risk).
Other rules are 1) Don't lose money 2)
Never forget rule #1 and 3) Don't have over-confidence leading
to over-trading which reflects a lack of discipline which
is a direct result of breaking rule #2. Have confidence
in your issue selections because they are grounded on a framework
of "rational" principles, architecting a philosophically,
objective, method of issue selection (Reason).
Model Positions are created at a size representing a fixed percentage
of the portfolio. Larger versions of similar positions may involve
market impact costs or other costs that we do not take into account.
Model
Positions are created at a size representing a fixed % of the
portfolio adjusted by the dollar volatility of the instrument
traded. Larger versions of similar positions may involve market
impact costs or other costs that we do not take into account.
The typical
portfolio% risked for the method is adjusted by the dollar volatility
of the instrument traded, assuming that the system has a positive
Expectancy ((AW X PW - AL X PL) / AL) where AW=average win, PW=probability
of win, AL=average loss, PL=probability of loss) & a Profit
Factor (W:L ratio) greater than 1.0. Min. account size recommended:$1K
- mini-forex, $10K - mini-futures, ETF's, $100K - stocks, futures,
$1M - bonds, $10M - T-bills, $100M - forex.
Keep
the max. # of positions to 20 for each of stocks/options, forex
and futues. There is no reason to have more than 20 positions
for each of stocks/options, forex, and futures. Its far easier
to buy the indices. This is a numbers game. The Dow has only 30
positions as its components. HOLDRs funds such as BBH, HHH and
TTH have as few as 20. Why is it then, that so many investors
go through the trouble to have 30 to 200 positions for each asset
class in their own portfolios? You dont need to be a statistician
to figure out that the more positions in an asset class you have
the more your portfolio will begin to behave as an index. That
investor would be better off to buy the indices themselves because
most indexes will beat 80% of all managed funds.
This
is the best way to ensure that your initial account gets up to
speed and running in the fastest possible way which is made possible
primarily by the high-performance and high-expectancy system used
to trade the portfolio combined with a superior issue-selection
method, solid money management techniques and mind psychology
which is directly affected by how much money you have to work
with and selecting markets appropriately. A buy-and-hold portfolio
(without hedging with options and spreads) with the objective
of maximizing return is synonymous with crash-and-burn unless
the Position Size is reduced (enabling sufficient diversification)
and the objective changed from maximizing return to maximizing
the Expectancy Score enabled by sufficient diversification (increased
number of trades through increased number of positions.)
The risk of a trade is defined as the dollar amount that the trade
would lose per contract if it were a loss. Commonly, the trade
risk is taken as the size of the money management stop applied,
if any, to each trade. If your system doesn’t use protective (money
management) stops, the risk can be taken as the largest historical
loss over a period of 30 recent trades in a walk-forward test.
This is a modification of the approach Vince adopted in his book
"Portfolio Management Formulas," John Wiley & Sons, New York,
1990. http://www.adaptrade.com/Articles/article-ffps.htm
The secret to the
med-term(2 days to 2 weeks average trade length) strategy is multiple
med-term gains in the underlying positions. Instead of buying
& holding an instrument for several months hoping to get 50%
return(a lot can happen in several months), you buy & control
it for just a few weeks & exit when the inevitable short-term
counter-trend (confirmed) move comes along.
The
advantages 1) Diversification 2) you buy & control instruments
on a dip at exactly the right time to maximize your chance of
a sizable med-term gain! What makes this so powerful, is the magic
of compound interest & the built-in high-leverage of options
& futures.
In
my mind, curve fitting means either using different systems for
different markets, or using different parameters of the same system
for different markets, and this is not valid technical analysis.
Instead, one should trade the moves, rather than markets.
Some traders hold on to a position, and keep changing their systems
to fit it - other traders hold on to their systems and keep changing
their portfolios to fit it. If a system works on Bonds and not
on Beans, this system is curve fitted over a specific set of data
(Bonds) and it loses all statistical validity. To believe it will
work in the future as it has worked in the past is very dangerous.
I therefore take exception to any system, that either only trades
one specific market (stocks or forex) or group of markets (Energy
or Grains or Cattle), or trades different markets using different
parameters or rules of the same system. All this proves is what
has worked best in the past, and this will usually not continue
to work in the future, as there is no correlation under this scenario
as history wont ever repeat itself exactly.
To maintain the same performance over time you need to adjust
your trading size to your account balance. The only way this can
be done properly is by receiving signals from a system providor
and/or manual trade yourself. If you start with 100k, but your
system providors balance is already at 200k, you then need 1/2
the # of contracts, if that would still be possible, because you
can not buy/sell 0.5 contracts.
Trader Mike says: "Expectancy, position-sizing and other aspects
of money management are far more important than discovering the
holygrail entry system or indicator(s)." http://tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy.html
Alex Matulich says: "Expectancy score is a better, more objective
measure than the Sharpe Ratio for evaluating the relative performance
of different trading strategies." http://unicorn.us.com/trading/expectancy.html
Harry M. Kat says "Overall portfolio standard deviation can be
reduced further by combining both hedge funds and managed futures
with stocks and bonds." Quote from http://www.capmgt.com/managed-futures-and-hedge-funds.html
Dr.
David Druz says, "The more robust a system, the more volatile
it tends to be! This is because robust systems are not optimized
to particular markets or market conditions. The converse is also
true. You can design systems with excellent returns and low volatility
on historical testing, but which work only for given periods in
given markets. These systems tend to be curve-fit or market-fit
and are not robust." "Investment administrators should not
be concerned with the volatility of a proven, robust futures trading
system. Rather, they should seriously question those astonishingly
large numbers of systems trading programs that are marketed touting
potential gain without proportional volatility! Doesn't that make
more sense? If you expect potential benefit without accompanying
relative risk, you believe you can get something for nothing--an
alarmingly dangerous trap." These quotes comes from:
http://www.tacticalnet.com/cgi-bin/t2.exe/VolatiltiyPaper.htm
Warren Buffet,
undoubtedly one of the 20th century's best investors, says that
smarts and talent are like a motor's horsepower, but that the
motor's output depends on rationality. "A lot of people
start out with a 400-horsepower motor but only get 100 horsepower
or output," he said. "It's way better to have a
200-horsepower motor and get it all into output." This
quote comes from this article at:
The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency versus
Magnitude
Day-trading systems specialize in one particular market (no diversification),
do very well for a while and then suddenly fall to pieces. Many
day-trading systems are taking extremely large positions which,
in the event of any large intra-day moves or breakdown in exchange
trading functions due to terrorist attacks, etc., or server outages
which happen from time to time, expose the account to wipe-out,
even negative equity.
Please also note that as with many systems that go for longer
terms moves (although not all trades do this), the open equity
plot favoured here at C2 sometimes provides a misleading, or we
should say incomplete, picture. The most important negative points
are those that involve actual realized account losses, which are
not the same as an open equity drawdown. There are going to be
open equity drawdowns. But in order to get the big moves, you
have to be willing to give those profits a chance to run. Sometimes
it works, sometimes it doesnt. What is not shown here on the C2
graph is the closed equity line. Usually, though not always, it
shows a far smoother ride than looking at the open equity plot
alone, which does tend to oscillate far more, and also with far
larger moves than any day-trading system would permit. Also,
options on forex and futures are not yet available at C2, which
makes it difficult to hedge your positions for longer-term investing,
with the result it appears that the day-trading systems at C2
encounter lower drawdowns; but in reality, the intra day drawdowns
they encounter is not shown here at C2; instead they show end-of-day
drawdowns which essentially is a closed equity plot for day trading
systems. In some cases, using closed trade equity
for drawdown calculations will underestimate the drawdown. This
is usually only a concern for long-term trend following system,
which may have large swings in open-equity during the trade. Even
with these types of systems, however, only a fraction of the trades
generally experience intra-trade drawdowns that completely reverse
before the trade exits. If, on the other hand, a trade exits at
it worst intra-trade drawdown, the closed trade equity will also
accurately represent the intra-trade drawdown. "open-equity drawdowns"
are similar to "crouching" before making the gaint leap up.
"All that glisters is not Gold" - William Shakespeare http://www.dontloseyourass.com
It would be nice to have a failover mechanism for C2's servers
(I would be very much surprised if they are not already in place.)
Even if the secondary server is not as powerful as the primary
server, it would be okay, because the failover switch would be
needed only for a brief, temporary period of time, enough to safeguard
the systems that are primarily trading intra-day, end-of-day and
day-trading real-time.
Of course, this still does not safeguard the accounts against
exchange trading functions ceasing due to rare events or sudden
large intra-day moves in response to these rare events or the
erosion of equity due to slippages caused by market orders necessitated
by missed fills on limit orders.
The only true solution is to switch to position trading where
orders are placed well before the market opens which would mean
trading (not necessarily) longer-term systems and diversification
through systems that trade like a hedge fund (trades all of stocks,
forex, futures and options) which may have a better payoff structure
for their portfolios.
In case of exchange trading functions ceasing, sometimes it might
take several days or even weeks to return to normal, in which
case, the longer-term systems with average trade length in weeks
or months rather than in days would have a better resistance to
these economic shocks.
Out-of-sample data is essential for system validation. Robustness,
rather than peak performance, is the key to a useful system. Robustness
is a term used to describe a system or method that works under
many market conditions" - Perry Kaufman, "Trading Systems and
Methods"
The
systems that have withstood the test of time (robust) have very
few parameters and very simple methods - John Hill, Truth In Futures
Returns are usually calculated in relation to the notional amount
invested. In hedged positions, the return is calculated in relation
to the notional amount invested on the riskier side. In some cases
returns are calculated in relation to futures margin requirements.
All trades are posted in real time (US Eastern), as soon as they
are virtually executed.
Trades are entered into the model positions at prices prevailing
at the moment of virtual execution, with exact pricing and commission
protocols noted with each trade.
Neither uninvested cash, margin debt, nor margin deposits accrue
interest debits or credits, unless specified.
Principals of theRootofAllGoodisMoney.com or their families may
hold in their personal accounts positions in securities mentioned
in Model Positions or in other commentaries. When we write about
about a specific underlying security instrument (either in Stocks,
Indexes, Money, Debt & Mortgage markets, FOREX or Futures) in
which we have a position, we will tell you about our position.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Our business history
I, Pal Anand has over 15 years of combined trading, R&D experience
in the Stock, Index, Forex, Futures, Debt, Mortgage & Money market
instruments.
About our staff
I, Pal Anand, recieved
M.S. from Clemson University, SC, USA and has over 15 years of
experience in computer software consulting for corporations like
Rashtriya Ispat Nigam, HCL America, Trico Technologies Corp.,
Stant Corp., ChoiceCare, Compuware Corp., Fruit Of the Loom, Ford
Motor Co., Proware, Quadratek Investment Management Professionals,
Ram Technologies, National Fuel Gas, 18 Global Corp., Quill Corp.,
IBM, SBC Ameritech (AT&T) and Futureware. I am also
a member of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)
and Professional Risk Managers' International Association (PRMIA).
We are involved in
the business of capital accumulation through Algorithmic Hedged
Scale Trading in the financial markets.
Prudent (high reward/low
risk) investments offer above average capital appreciation potential
along with above average safety. Investors trading Prudent
instruments tend to hold them for the Med-term to Long-Term, but
also sell lackluster performers to improve profits. Therefore,
their turnover is somewhat higher than a Conservative investor's
(who uses a Buy-and-Hold (ultra long-term) approach without hedging
the portfolio with options as in a mutual fund) but their portfolio's
performance is much better.
Prudent investors want
the best of all worlds: High reward and Low Risk.
They are interested in outperforming the market over the med-term
to long-term, and achieving annual returns greater than the sum
of med-term or long-term interest rates and inflation. The
best way to meet these stringent requirements is to buy/sell "safe",
"diversified", "hot" and "under-valued"
or "over-valued" instruments poised for a substantial
move.
Aggressive investors
want great performance, e.g., capital appreciation of greater
than 100%/year, and are willing to take substantial risk to achieve
it. They are looking for big gainers and instruments with
high upside potential, like high growth stocks and futures that
are skyrocketing in price.
Conservative investors
buy instruments, but do not like to take much risk. They
are primarily interested in capital preservation and are delighted
to settle for average market returns, like low growth, steady
performers which pay solid dividends.
Speculative investors
are looking for big gains without regard to risk. The fundamentals
of value and safety mean nothing to them. They buy instruments
on hype and rumor and excited by price activity and volatility
and typically engaged in day-trading.
I recommend that investors
reduce risk by diversifying. This may be done by investing
not only in a variety of stocks in different industries, but also
in asset classes like futures, options and forex. Don't
plunge into the market all at one time. It pays to diversify.
Don't be afraid to use
margins. When used properly, margins can increase the profitability
of your portfolio substantially. If one used prudent instrument
selection and effective trading tactics, the use of margin should
not pose a problem.
It is a popular saying: "Money Talks, But Bullshit Walks." Yes,
It is true, but if Money doesn't talk, then something else does.
If money ceases to be the tool by which men deal with one another,
then men become the tools of men. Blood, whips and guns or dollars.
Take your choice - for there is no other - and your time is running
out.
What makes us unique
Existence exists. ("Existence"
here is a collective noun, denoting about the sum of existents.)
This axiom does not tell us anything about the nature of existents;
it merely underscores the fact that they exist.
Let me iterate that the causal link relates an entity and its
action. The law of causality does not state every ENTITY has a
cause. Some of the things commonly referred to as "entities" do
not come into being or pass away, but are eternal - e.g., the
universe as a whole. The concept of "cause" is inapplicable to
the universe; by definition, there is nothing outside the totality
to act as a cause. The universe simply IS; it is a irreducible
primary. An entity may be said to have a cause only if it is the
kind of entity that is noneternal; and then what one actually
explains causally is a process, the fact of its coming into being
or another thing's passing away. Action is the crux of the law
of cause and effect; it is action that is caused - by entities.
By the same token, the causal link does not relate two actions.
Since the Renaissance, it has been common for philosophers to
speak as though actions directly cause other actions, bypassing
entities altogether. For example, the motion of one billiard ball
striking a second, the implication being that we can dispense
with the balls; motions by themselves become the cause of other
motions. This idea is senseless. Motions do not act, they ARE
actions. It is entities which act - and cause. Speaking literally,
it is not the motion of a billiard ball which produces effects;
it is the billiard ball, the entity, which does so by a certain
means. If one doubts this, one need merely substitute an egg or
soap bubble with the same velocity and momentum for the billiard
ball; the effects will be quite different.
Choice, is not a mystic factor superimposed on a deterministic
creature. There is no dichotomy between will and nature or between
will and reason. Reason is will , and therefore the power
of choice is the power that rules man, in regard both to body
(action) and soul. Man is not only free, he is the product of
his freedom - which means: of his intellect.
Man is the opposite of the feeble creature imagined by religionists
and behaviorists alike. He is not a palsied atom to be pitied
and manipulated, but an autonomous entity to be respected and
admired - on one condition: if he earns such respect by his choices.
This applies to every man by his metaphysical nature. It applies
to every individual with a rational faculty, whatever the degree
of his intelligence.
Man qua man is a hero - if he makes himself into one.
Man is an organism of a distinctive kind, living in a universe
which has a definite nature. His life depends on a cognitive faculty
which functions according to specific rules. This faculty belongs
to man the individual.
The law of casuality
states that entities are the cause of actions - not that every
entity, of whatever sort, has a cause, but that every action does;
and not that the cause of action is action, but the cause of action
is entities.
Many commentators on Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle claim
that, because we cannot at the same time specify fully the position
and momentum of subatomic particles, their action is not entirely
predictable, and that the law of causality therefore breaks down.
This is a non sequitur, a switch from epistemology to metaphysics,
or from knowledge to reality. Even if it were true that owing
to a lack of information we could never exactly predict a subatomic
event - and this is highly debatable - it would not show that,
in reality, the event was causeless. The law of causality is an
abstract principle; it does not by itself enable us to predict
specific occurrences; it does not provide us with a knowledge
of particular causes or measurements. Our ignorance of certain
measurements, however, does not affect their reality or the consequent
operation of nature.
Causality, is a fact independent of consciousness, whether God's
or Man's. Order, lawfulness, regularity do not derive from a cosmic
consciousness (as is claimed by the religious "argument from design").
Nor is causality merely a subjective form of thought that happens
to govern the human mind (as in the Kantian approach). On the
contrary, causality - for Objectivists, as for Aristotile - is
a law inherent in being qua being. To be is to be something -
and to be something is to act according to its nature.
Natural law is not a feature superimposed by some agency on an
otherwise "chatoic" world; there is no possibility of such chaos.
Nor is there any possibility of a "chance" event, if "chance"
means an exception to causality. Cause and effect is not a metaphysical
afterthought. It is not a fact that is theoretically dispensable.
It is part of the fabric of reality as such.
One may no more ask; who is responsible for natural law (which
amounts to asking: who caused casuality?) than one may ask: who
created the universe? The answer to both questions is the same:
existence exists: rationality: the commitment to reality (and
its obverse corrolary: only existence exists: honesty: the rejection
of unreality).
"Given for one
instant an intelligence which could comprehend all the forces
by which nature is animated and the respective situation of the
beings who compose it - an intelligence sufficiently vast to submit
these data to analysis - it would embrace in the same formula
the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those
of the lightest atom; for it, nothing would be uncertain
and the future, as the past, sould be present to its eyes"
- Laplace.
The above is called
the Laplace's Demon to describe an omniscient intelligence that
was capable of knowing everything in the present, and therefore
would know all that happened in the past and all that would happen
in the future.
Matter is made up of
atoms, which were made up of quarks and leptons - aka, energy.
Hence matter is energy and all thought are also made of
energy because all conscious and unconscious thought is created
through neurons firing off electrical signals in the brain.
Since all matter is energy and all thought is energy, then all
matter and thought are interconnected. That is where the
collective unconscious comes from - the shared, connected, unconscious
mind of every living creature that ever was, is, and will be.
Einstein proved that
time is relative. The only thing that's faster than the
speed of light is the speed of thought - specifically, unconscious
thought. And since time slows down as particles approach
the speed of light relative to those standing still, one can think
of the unconscious mind as eternal; hence, it's literally
timeless.
Prediction of the market direction based on what is hapenning
now is difficult, often futile for many, but one can't afford
to forget the past either because one would not then recognize
the future for what it actually is (better or worse), for the
future is only the past again, entered through another gate. So,
until the time we discover celestial gateways (wormholes etc.,)
through which we can time-travel to and return from the future
or tap the collective unconscious while being conscious, I believe
that only a few minority can consistently and accurately control
the future based on the present and no one can be correct about
the outcome all the time. Those few who can control the future
accurately are called the Laplace's Demon for they can reach the
collective unconscious even while they are conscious. These
are the geniuses who possess great insight and that can better
access the collective unconscious than the rest of us.
Eventhough nobody can perfectly predict the future based on the
present, by using a philosophical approach to
issue selection for global investments in stock/ETF, forex and
futures markets like theRootofAllGoodisMoney.com's we can assemble
an objective base of evidence that can help any investor make
more informed decisions away from the clouds of emotions.
We recognize that one
of the keys to success is using honest and reliable
money-management techniques which maximizes gains by exploiting
volatility to optimize the utilization of resources by forecasting
the support and resistance levels.
We also recognize that
another key to success is conducting research to discover new,
objective, numerical patterns to isolate and
quantify the definite cyclical nature of the market and developing
new Entry/Exit trading signal detection, verification and interpretation
systems based on these patterns.
TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com
assesses the economic trends and policy developments impacting
financial markets with a classical, “supply-side” approach that
has demonstrated superior predictive value. Traditional economic
analysis is concerned primarily with backward-looking statistical
aggregates that have little market relevance by the time they
are published. But portfolio investors constantly assess the landscape
of risks and opportunities based upon expectations of future economic
conditions. With its forward-looking methodology with the objective
of maximizing the Expectancy Score, theRootofAllGoodisMoney.com
is uniquely equipped to offer cutting-edge advice to capital market
participants who must make informed decisions today based on what
tomorrow is likely to bring.
This clear-eyed analytical perspective is the product of a rigorously
tested worldview that untangles the confusion between cause and
effect that plagues much conventional economic theory. Inflation,
for example, is caused not by falling unemployment or rising wages
but by declining monetary purchasing power, evidence of which
is captured first in the movement of sensitive commodity, fixed-income
and currency prices. Economic growth is explained not by a one-dimensional
view of “consumer demand,” but is the product of the myriad decisions
of entrepreneurs and risk-takers responding to incentives and
disincentives to create wealth.
|
