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Questions & Answers

Questions:

1. 

What am I trading?

2. 

Who is a trader?

3. 

How to choose a Forex broker?

4. 

What are the objectives of trading?

5. 

What should traders think about first when entering a new trade?

6. 

Tell me about some of the pitfalls traders face when it comes to trading smarter.

7. 

How might a trader go about identifying a risk level ahead of time?

8. 

What should traders look for when identifying a profit target?

9. 

Let's say you do enter that trade, and the stock goes up but stalls under $21, what might you then look to do?

10. 

So far we've only focused on the long side of the market. What about the short side?

11. 

What style of trading does your educational training best support?

12. 

Can you provide us with a simple but effective swing trading strategy?

13. 

How to use Fibonacci retracement tools?

14. 

Can you explain how the virtue of patience helps one in trading the markets?

15. 

CCI or MACD?

16. 

If your rational mind tells you something is interesting or
desirable to do, and -- at the same time, in contradiction -- your emotions tell you the opposite, then is it possible for both your head and your emotions to be correct?

17. 

Does Emotional Intelligence exists?

18. 

How does one Exploit the Effects of Emotions on the Capital Markets?

19. 

How does one use AI techniques in trading?

20. 

Is stock and futures market a Zero-sum game?

21. 

Is Efiicient Market Hypothesis theory valid?

22. 

Is there a "sure" system to beat the market?

23. 

What are your Future goals?

24. 

Are you trading real money or a demo account?

25. 

Does it really matter, what exact system is used for trading?

26. 

What is the advantages of using weekly data over daily data?

27. 

Is there any significance to the Time of Day, Day of Week and Month and Month of year in trading?

28. 

Which is an acceptable or minimal win% for a trading system ?

29. 

Is there a distinction about objectivity and subjectivity about price data?

30. 

Does reason lead man to certainty?

31. 

Why does man needs a Philosophy?

32. 

Comments on Van Tharps Courses please?

33. 

What about SAR?

34. 

What statistics are important in back-testing?

35. 

Do Indicators signal?

36. 

Dangers Of The True Optimal f. Do Equations Tell The Whole Story?

37. 

Thoughts on Optimization?

38. 

Is Walk Forward Tested System Is Better than the Best
Optimized One?

39. 

Ulcer Index?

40. 

Stop Loss?

41. 

Sharpe Ratio?

42. 

How to aim for the right target in trading?

43. 

Profit strategies?

44. 

Tight Stops?

45. 

The virtue of independence in trading?

46. 

Short Selling?

47. 

Trend Trading Range?

48. 

How does the markets really works?

49. 

Front Running and Pre-Released Data at the University of Michigan?

50. 

Fundamental Vs Technical Analysis?

51. 

Guidelines for Mechanical system Development?

52. 

How to use the popular Moving averages to signal trends?

53. 

Options?

54. 

Anticipation Vs Confirmation?

55. 

Interest Rates?

56. 

Gold?

57. 

Great Investing Secrets?

58. 

Fundamentals?

59. 

Neural Nets?

60. 

Search routine for a future crossover point?

61. 

Monte-Carlo Simulation?

62. 

OI, Volume and other sentiment indicators?

63. 

Revealing a system will degrade system performance?

64. 

Normalization?

65. 

Swing Trading?

66. 

Bollinger?

67. 

A trading Coach?

68. 

RSI and Stochastics?

69. 

Diversification?

70. 

5 Steps To Better Trading?

71. 

Accurate Pivot Points?

72. 

10% of Traders go bankrupt?

73. 

Technical specifics show price objectives, turns?

74. 

Stochastics?

75. 

Is The Trend Really Your Friend?

76. 

What's more important than know the trend?

77. 

Should you panic when a stock drops after a company earnings announcement?

78. 

Volatility?

79. 

Low risk Investment strategies?

80. 

Index Futures?

81. 

Greeks?

82. 

Cyclical Analysis To Calculate Intermediate Term Targets?

83. 

A strategy for investors who would like to “Repair” stocks that have lost value in the market downdraft?

84. 

The Importance of Base Patterns?

85. 

How do you find a threshold or resistance pattern for a stock that has been declining for two years, ie (the whole Tech sector), for example RBAK. It has recently began to make small jumps, but without knowing the resistance pattern, how would you know when to buy?

86. 

What other factors do you base your trades on? Or do you strictly use technicals?

87. 

How to Profit from the historical rise in stocks during the first weeks of the year?

88. 

How The Pros Minimize Losses?

89. 

I have ridden some stocks thru ups and downs. Can you give me some insights as to predicting how strong a top/bottom is in terms of how low to expect the reversal to go?

90. 

Do you recommend shorts for a farily new investor or should they stay with regular buys?

91. 

In a stock split, who benefits? The stockholder or the company?

92. 

Insiders Find the Top?

93. 

Is there a mutual fund that puts particular emphasis on companies where there is insider buying and/or buy back of company stock?

94. 

Is there a government web site that reports insider purchases and sales?

95. 

Is there a website that tells which stocks are being bought or sold? Do you use Yahoo and enter a stock name then look to see insider info?

96. 

Timely Tax Planning Is Crucial For Traders?

97. 

If I have 250,000 in losses and 200,000 in gains does 200,000 in losses wash the gains and should I sell only enough to exactly wash the gains. I make about 20 trades per month. If the answer is yes then how much more loss can I take?

98. 

Do you know about real estate tax laws? I heard that I can sell a property after living in it for 2 years and pay no captial gains taxes. Is that true?

99. 

Is there a comprehensive tax guide that I can purchase? What do you recommend?

100. 

Is there software that will help me track my options trades for tax purposes? I have a hard time following all of this.

101. 

Mortgage REIT's?

102. 

I have read elsewhere that the residential real estate sector, composed of residential construction companies and real estate services firms, is the most susceptible to economic slumps?

103. 

When the big bad bear takes hold of the market, shorting stocks can be a profitable strategy?

104. 

How should I get started with shorting? I've considered it for some time but it seems like a huge risk.

105. 

Can you recommend some literature that will give me additional detailed information about shorting stocks?

106. 

Chart Formations Signal Trend Reversals?

107. 

How to keep Mutual Funds from wiping out your portfolio?

108. 

How can options act as the “sure thing” in this market?

109. 

4 Step Portfolio Checkup – What Should Stay And Go?

110. 

Part-time traders may qualify for trader tax status?

111. 

A great hedging tool, spreads, that can easily be combined with rollups or rolldowns to further reduce your risk?

112. 

Earnings Estimates - Do They Work Anymore?

113. 

How to diversify?

114. 

How to Turn Bulls Into Bears?

115. 

Bull-Call Debit Spread?

116. 

Seventeen time-honored rules to help improve your trading results?

117. 

Strangle?

118. 

Insider Trading – Is it Predictive?

119. 

Five ways to invest smarter, make more money, and sleep better at night?

120. 

Selling Short: A Technique for Profiting When Stocks Fall?

121. 

Can we Zero Your Risk?

122. 

Three ways to profit from the "Tax Bounce"?

123. 

Consistent Shares May Give Inconsistent Results?

124. 

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)?

125. 

Have you ever owned a call option that is down in price even though the underlying stock is up significantly for the day?

126. 

Short Positions in an IRA?

127. 

Systematic Option Writing: Hedging Made Easy?

128. 

What is one of the causes of mind-numbing, portfolio-constricting stultification?

129. 

But what happens when option trades are initiated predominantly by option sellers?

130. 

A Collar Strategy?

131. 

What's your favorite index to follow?

132. 

Bar Chart formations?

133. 

Five Investing Myths You Should Know?

134. 

Systematic Option Writing: Hedging Made Easy?

135. 

Special Situations - Smart money shows its hand long before the news hits the street?

136. 

Round Numbers?

137. 

The Downside of Covered Calls?

138. 

Naked Puts?

139. 

Volume Can Give You An Early Warning?

140. 

Fed Model methodology?

141. 

Liquidity?

142. 

When to Sell?

143. 

How much risk is there in reward?

144. 

Merge Quantitative, Technical, and Strategic Methods?

145. 

Delta-Neutral Hedging?

146. 

how does one navigate the changing market conditions?

147. 

High Noon in India?

148. 

Build your own fund?

149. 

Hedging & Compounding - secrets to creating wealth?

150. 

What are the Seasonality Odds?

151. 

In some cases, even if the company reports profit in its earning report, the stock proce falls. What may be the reason behind this?

152. 

We often hear that the Fed has started the printing presses and is increasing liquidity. What is the exact mechanism for doing this? Certainly, Greenspan doesn't run up and down Wall St. throwing out $100 bills! How does this tie in with the low Discount Rate?

153. 

50-Day Relative Strength?

154. 

Covered Call Writing?

155. 

How To Evaluate A Good System?

156. 

Stop-Loss or Covered Call -- Why not both?

157. 

How to beat the S&P 500 Index?

158. 

SPUs?

159. 

Why Buying And Holding Is Dangerous To Your Retirement?

160. 

Low Volatility?

161. 

Why Active Management?

162. 

Selling Puts vs. Covered Call Writing?

163. 

Head And Shoulders Chart Formations?

164. 

Are rising rates inherently bad for the market?

165. 

LEAPS as an Alternative to Stocks?

166. 

How to Find Good Bond Buys?

167. 

ETFs or Futures?

168. 

Indicators & Trading Systems?

169. 

Stock Index Lists?

170. 

Mechanical Trading Systems?

171. 

What is Containment?

172. 

Candlestick Chart Patterns?

173. 

What exactly is accumulation and distribution?

174. 

How to make the stock market a favorable game?

175. 

Do you think you can be profitable every month?

176. 

What is the Psychology behind trading?

177. 

Can exchanges change the rules any time they want to?

178. 

Should we try to take profits from the market?

179. 

Neural Networks (NN), Mechanical Systems and Super-Computers?

180. 

Does volume figure into your trading?

181. 

How are Indexes calculated?

182. 

How to Profit from the Wisdom of the "Oracle of Omaha"?

183. 

How to Claim and Defend Your Trader Status?

184. 

System Trading vs. Discretionary Trading: Which Is Better?

185. 

Can not short sell stocks under $5?

186. 

Two ways to go broke trading a market?

187. 

It seems every investor I meet is a stock picker and always in search of the next Microsoft. The story is always the same: he is in love with his stock, and it's always got unbelievable potential. What's wrong with this picture?

188. 

"Buy at the time of maximum pessimism and Sell at the time of maximum optimism" ?

189. 

John was a little shell-shocked over what had happened in the market over the last three days. He'd lost 70% of his account value. He was shaken, but still convinced that he could make the money back! After all, he had been up almost 200% before the market withered him down. He still had $4,500 left in his account. What advice would you give John?

190. 

Portfolio Drawdown?

191. 

M-Score?

192. 

How many stocks should you own in your portfolio?

193. 

Suppose a crystal ball showed you 20 wonderful stocks that would appreciate by 25% in a year. Would your portfolio be up 25% in one year?

194. 

Investment Newsletters? Gurus?

195. 

The "wonderful" results of most systems are often the result of computer modeling and the ability to pick the best curve to make the retrospective data appear most positive. When followed prospectively many of these models perform much more poorly.

196. 

Can I Buy an Index, or ETFs using the TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com system?

197. 

Is the TheRootofAllGoodisMoney Strategy risky?

198. 

I'm currently fully invested in the market. Would you recommend I get out to start fresh?

199. 

What is the minimum capital amount I need to properly apply the TheRootofAllGoodisMoney strategy?

200. 

Does your system work in any other stock market but the U.S.A.?

201. 

Does the system tell me when to sell?

202. 

Does TheRootofAllGoodisMoney execute my orders for me, or do I use my own brokerage account?

203. 

Does the system require a heavy time commitment, and is it easy to understand? Can I go on vacations? I share the basic philosophy but I am still in the corporate rat race and don't have a lot of time to spend at the terminal during the day.

204. 

How do you avoid the Enrons and the WorldComs of the world?

205. 

Is TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com a short term trading system, or a long term investment system?

206. 

Do you use stops?

207. 

Wall Street's Analysts?

208. 

There are similarities in your strategy to work published by the Turtle strategy, and Dr. Van Tharp (position sizing, diversification, market trending, risk management). How does your work differ from theirs?

209. 

Why wouldn't fund managers simply use your approach? Most mutual fund results reflect the general market returns, but your returns far exceed the general market.

210. 

How would a bear market impact the TheRootofAllGoodisMoney strategy?

211. 

Are you a broker, or an investment advisor?

212. 

How many years has TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com been in business?

213. 

Does TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com offer higher diversification levels?

214. 

I live overseas, and commissions are very expensive here. How can I best utilize your strategy?

215. 

Do you short stocks?

216. 

Do you publish an equity curve? What type of drawdown should I expect using your strategy?

217. 

Tax-wise, is your method efficient?

218. 

Do you cover only Blue Chip stocks, or do you cover small stocks as well?

219. 

If I subscribe to TheRootofAllGoodisMoney.com, will the methodology be revealed to me?

220. 

Would my money be invested all at once or gradually over a given time period?

221. 

I am 66 years old, retired and drawing $1,300.00 a month social security. I sold my home and I now rent a house. I have $240,000 which I would like to invest. Would you recommend your service to me?

222. 

Professional Traders?

223. 

Trading Systems?

224. 

Investment systems?

225. 

Stock Value?

226. 

Extremely Bullish?

227. 

Is the PE Ratio, the best method of deciding if a stock is worth buying? Don't bet on it: PE ratio alone can be very misleading.

228. 

Day-Trading?

229. 

What is more important? Best-case scenario which promises the heaven and the moon?

230. 

Real-world results?

231. 

Why do you hold a position overnight?

232. 

If I created a system that bought the bid and sold the offer all day long, and asked you to post the trades -- my system would appear unbelievably profitable based on your posting of fills on a single 'Last Traded Price'?

233. 

My thinking in picking that number was that it's still incredibly ridiculous to trade anything with 33:1 margin, but it's more conservative than the 100:1 margin some forex brokers offer?

234. 

Missed limit orders on quick intraday moves is what killed my ability to match the C2 results, so 10-15s delay after an ITM signal is too long to get the results shown based on my experience.

235. 

since there are lots of trades and even small slippages on each trade can add up to counter the small net profit when all the trade results are summed up?

236. 

Hedge Funds?

237. 

Trade Size & Detecting Breakouts?

238. 

Growth and Value both do better when Growth does better? The Growth vs Vaue Strategy.

239. 

Shorting ETFs: The Little Guy Gets The Shaft Again?

240. 

How To Turbo-Charge Your Trading Performance?

241. 

Options, Stops, Leveraging & Volatility?

242. 

How to find a good trading system?

243. 

Sstem Tests?

244. 

"If a system can't even be manually traded, auto-trading is sheer lunacy." ?

245. 

If I am following someone elses system I see no point in trying to second guess it or attempt to tweak it in some way?

246. 

But I still maintain that trying to tweak someone elses system, when all you get (on C2) are specific trade entry and exit notices, makes no sense because the underlying methodology for picking those specific trades is not known by the subscriber, generally?

247. 

By increasing your risk exposure just a little bit, do you mean by using options?

248. 

Hypothetical results vs Real results?

249. 

Valid Trading Systems?

250. 

Small things matter too?

251. 

Speculation vs Gambling?

252. 

Entrepreneurial uncertainty?

253. 

What are the Types of Trading?

254. 

System testing and Sample Size?

255. 

Optimal portfolio selection strategy?

256. 

Can one judge performance of a trader and his system by the results?

257. 

Market Indexes?

258. 

Does advertising you system as a featured system at C2 leads to its demise?.

259. 

I would take issue with your concern "that the way it is set up right now, the impression this gives is that
Collective2 is attempting to steer would-be customers to certain system vendors" and your statement that "perception is 90% of reality."

260. 

What is the relationship of concepts to existents? To what precisely do concepts refer in reality?

261. 

Pride.

 
 

Answers:

1. What am I trading?

 

"The biggest human temptation is - to settle for too little." - Thomas Merton.
“The crowd is right during the trends but wrong at both ends.” - Humphrey Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking.
"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do." - Walter Bagehot.
"The best way to make your dreams come true is to wake up and do something about it." - Anon.
"Success consists of a series of little daily victories." - Anon.
"Common sense is the knack of seeing things as they are, and in doing things as they ought to be done." - Joss Billings.
"When nothing is "sure" as in the markets, everything is possible" - Margret Drabble

Our Stock Market Database contains more than 20,000 Stocks.

The Stocks information will be updated at around 9 AM EST Daily. Commissions are assumed to be aroung $.01/share. There are too many stocks to list them all here.

There is always something going on especially within the ebb and flow of the markets. The Stocks to watch for posted daily should keep you focused on the expected action and out front of the gibbering hordes during Earnings Season.

A-American Stock Exchange, N-New York Stock Exchange, O-Over-the-counter/NASDAQ.

Our Financial Market Index Database contains more than 279 indices and provides a broad, long-term view of the World financial markets. The broad set of Debt Market Rates includes Money Market Rates on the EuroDollar and Treasury Bills as well as Debt market rates on U.S. Treasuries Markets except in the case where there are equivalent Futures contracts available (for e.g., EuroDollar, 2, 5, 10 year T-Note, Fed Funds Rate, Municipal Bond and 30 year T-Bond Futures.)

The Index information will be updated at around 9 AM EST Daily. Commissions are assumed to be $.01/share. Currently 163 indices are tracked, and some of the major indices tracked are as follows:

Name Sym

---------------- ---

Diamonds DIA

NASDAQ 100 Shrs QQQ

SPDRs SPY

SP100 iSh OEF

SP500 Gth iS IVW

SP500 Val iS IVE

SP Midcap Spider MDY

MidC 400 Gth iS IJK

MidC 400 Val iS IJJ

SP SmCap 600 iSh IJR

SmCap 600 Gth iS IJT

SmCap 600 Val iS IJS

Russell 2000 iSh IWM

Rus2000 Gth iS IWO

Rus2000 Val iS IWN

SP Equal Wt ETF RSP

InvesTop CrpB iS LQD

T-Bond 1-3 Yr iS SHY

T-Bond 20+ Yr iS TLT

T-Bnd 7-10 Yr iS IEF

Bank Regional HL RKH

Biotech iShares IBB (or BBH for holders)

Broadband HLDRs BDH

Consumer Disc SP XLY

Consumer iShares IYC

Consumer Non-Cyc IYK

Consumer Stpl SP XLP

Energy SP XLE

Financial SP XLF

Health Care SP XLV

Healthcare iShrs IYH

Industrial SP XLI

Internet HLDRs HHH

Intnet Arch HLDR IAH

Intnet B2B HLDRs BHH

Intnet Infra HLD IIH

Materials SP XLB

Natural Res iSh IGE

Network iS IGN

Oil Svc HLDRs OIH

Pharm HLDRs PPH

Real Estate iShr IYR

Retail Holders RTH

Semiconductor iS SMH

Software iShares SWH

Technology SP XLK

Telecom iShares TTH

Utilities HL UTH

Utilities SP XLU

Wireless HL WMH

Australia iShrs EWA

Brazil iShares EWZ

Canada iShares EWC

EAFE Index iS EFA

EMU iShares EZU

France iShares EWQ

Germany iShares EWG

HongKong iShares EWH

Japan iShares EWJ

Malaysia iShares EWM

Mexico iShares EWW

Singapore iShrs EWS

South Korea iShr EWY

Switzerland iShr EWL

Taiwan iShares EWT

United Kgdm iShr EWU

Our FX database has over 72 FX pairs. The FX information will be updated at around 7:00 AM EST Daily. There are no commissions though roll-over charges exist depending on the broker, the size of the position and time of trade. Please contact your broker for these charges. The following are some of the FX pairs tracked:

USD/CHF
EUR/USD
AUD/CAD
AUD/JPY
AUD/USD
CHF/JPY
EUR/CAD
EUR/AUD
EUR/CAD
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
GBP/CHF
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/JPY

Our Futures database has over 131 major futures Contract specifications. Currently 67 major Futures Contracts are tracked. The Futures information will be updated at around 7:00 AM EST Daily. The commissions are assumed to be $5 per round-turn. The following are the 67 major futures contracts currently tracked.

Currencies

AD Australian Dollar
BP British Pound
CD Canadian Dollar
DX US Dollar
EU Euro
JY Japanese Yen
MP Mexican Peso
SF Swiss Franc

Financial Instruments

ED EuroDollar
FV 5-Year Treasury-Note
MB Municipal Bonds
TU 2-Year Treasury-Note
TY 10-Year Treasury Note
US 30-Year Treasury Bond
AX Canada Bankers Acceptance
CG Canada Government Bond
EBI Eurex Bund
EEI Euribor 3 Month
EM LIBOR DAY
FF Fed Funds Rate
LL Long Gilt
SR Short Sterling

Stock Indices

DJ Dow Jones Industrials
GX Dax
HS Hang Seng
MD MidCap 400
MV Mini-Value Line
ND Nasdaq
NK Nikkei
RT Russell 2000
SP S&P 500
ES Mini S&P 500
ZX FTSE
ER EuroTop 100
SG S&P Growth
SPI SFE SPI 200

Metals

GC Gold
HG Copper
PA Palladium
PL Platinum
SI Silver

Energy

CL Crude Oil
HO Heating Oil
HU Unleaded Gasoline
NG Natural Gas
IC IPE Brent Crude Oil

Grains

BO Bean Oil
C Corn
KW Kansas City Wheat
MW Minneapolis Wheat
NR Rough Rice
O Oats
S Soybeans
SM soy Meal

W Cbot Wheat

Other Indices

CR Commodity Researsh Bureau Index
GI Goldman Sachs Index
Fiber
CT Cotton

Livestock
FC Feeder Cattle
LC Live Cattle

Meats
LH Lean Hogs
PB Prok Bellies

Foods

CC Coccoa
KC Coffee
SB Sugar

Softs

JO Orange Juice

 

2. Who is a trader?

 

The Trader

The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader. We, who live by values, not by loot, are traders, both in matter and spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failure, he does not ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit -- his love, his friendship, his esteem – except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect. The mystic parasites who have, throughout the ages, reviled the trader and held him in contempt, while honoring beggars and looters, have known the secret motive of their sneers: a trader is an entity they dread - a man of justice.

--Ayn Rand

 

3. How to choose a Forex broker?

 

If you're searching for a forex broker it's easy to get overwhelmed by the sheer number of choices available.

A quick search on Google for "forex broker" easily yields over 191,000 search results, not to mention a ton of ads. So with all of these potential brokers, where do you start?

I put together a couple of resources to help you
out.

* What you should look for in a broker?
* Who regulates forex brokers?
* How to find out about any complaints or cases against a potential broker.

To access the answers, please visit the link below:
http://www.market-millions.com/ez/go.php?forex-broker.php

 

4. What are the objectives of trading?

 

The way I see it, trading smarter can lead to trading profitably, and to do that you need to have a disciplined and consistent focus on two key trading objectives--reduce risk and boost profits. Given the way the markets have behaved in recent years, and how the markets are likely to continue to behave, there is perhaps as great a need for traders to employ strategy and discipline as ever. Bungled trades may be avoided by maintaining oneself in top physical and mental condition. Emotional blunders may be avoided by sticking to rules (discipline/self-discipline) come hell or high water. Losses due to testing unproven strategies may be minimized by limiting the PositionSize for such trades. Entry rules control risk. Entries don't determine winners or losers. Exit rules determine profits or losses (winners or losers). Entry and Exit rules together determine Expectancy and Opportunity. Position sizing determines your net profit or return, as well as Maximum DrawDown (MDD). So when one is designing the entry/exit rules and their input parameters, don't optimize for net profit! Instead . . .Optimize for Expectancy. Optimize for maximum expectancy, without regard to anything else. Position sizing takes care of the rest. A good position sizing strategy will result in greater, more consistent profits on a high-expectancy strategy than on a low-expectancy strategy, even if the low-expectancy strategy has a higher net profit on a 1-contract basis! Develop a system that has a high expectancy, and one'll find that even the Sharpe Ratio and Ulcer Performance Index (UPI) takes care of itself. A further caution is advised against automating an unproven system as it would only accelerate the mess.

 

5. What should traders think about first when entering a new trade?

 

I'd recommend each trader start by taking a look at the overall condition of the market, then looking at the technical position of each market sector. After performing this "top-down" analysis of the markets and sectors, the trader should then turn to looking at individual stocks.

 

6. Tell me about some of the pitfalls traders face when it comes to trading smarter.

 

A key requirement for trading smarter is to become totally objective. When committing hard-earned money to any investment, it's real easy to also commit your emotions. Emotional trading is probably the most common pitfall that traders face today. Generally, by letting emotions rule your trade decisions, the market has a funny way of finding and exposing this weakness. My experience has shown me that stock prices are determined by investor psychology, and both psychology and stock prices move in trends. These trends can be visually captured on price charts, and objectively analyzed using various technical tools and indicators. Once you know the trend of a trade candidate, you can then begin to look at optimal entry points, as well as identify risk levels and profit targets. This can all be done prior to entering a trade to help you mentally rehearse a trade's potential outcome ahead of time. If you don't mentally rehearse your trades before entering them, it is far easier to allow your emotions to take control when events go unexpectedly against you.

 

7. How might a trader go about identifying a risk level ahead of time?

 

Traders should always focus first on risk, then on profits. Risk represents the level where a trader might set a stop order in order to exit an unprofitable trade with minimal losses. By setting stops ahead of time you have already made a major effort at mentally rehearsing trades in case things go wrong. For a long position, I would advise the trader to first identify the support level on the price chart then place the stop order just below this support level. I define support as a level where a declining price trend can be expected to halt temporarily due to a concentration of buying demand. Support levels are not predictors of where prices might go, but they do indicate possible or probable points where they might bounce. Potential support points include previous highs and lows, the upper and lower areas of gaps, trendlines and reliable moving averages. Once the price falls below a support level, then the trader should immediately minimize that loss and quickly liquidate the position. Minimizing risk is important because statistically it is very difficult to come back from a big loss. For example if you lose 50% on a trade you will have to make 100% on the next one just to break even.

 

8. What should traders look for when identifying a profit target?

 

Always consider a trade's risk-to-reward ratio. While identifying risk involves setting a stop to minimize risk in a losing trade, identifying a trade's reward involves setting a target where you will look to take profits from a winning trade. I typically look for trade candidates where there is at least a 1 to 1 reward versus risk, i.e, the reward should be atleast commensurate with risk. In other words, if I were to enter a long position at $20 and determine my risk/support level to be at $19 (a $1 loss per share), I would want to target a minimum price of $21 (a $1 profit per share), or one times the risk per share. If through my use of technical analysis price pattern forecasting I determine that it is probable the price may reach $21 or higher in the timeframe of my trade, I may elect to enter that trade. Also remember to never risk more than 45% of your account equity on any one trade. If you risk say 45% of your trading capital on each trade and proceed to lose this amount on two consecutive trades, you then would find yourself nearly out of business. It is important to note here that by capital at risk, I am referring to the maximum amount you'd be willing to lose on any individual trade and not the total amount of capital committed to any one trade.

 

9. Let's say you do enter that trade, and the stock goes up but stalls under $21, what might you then look to do?

 

Seeing as you want to maximize profits, wait and look for signs of a reversal before giving up on the stock hitting your initial price target. There are many types of reversal signals to look for. The real key is to accumulate a "weight of evidence approach" that a trend is reversing before making the decision to exit the trade. By weight of the evidence I mean the trader should consider the technical position using a consensus of four or five indicators. Never trade with one indicator because even the best ones fail from time to time. Using a consensus approach increases your odds of being successful. If you follow too many indicators, this will likely lead you to a state of confusion. If there are contradictions among indicators, check your premises, one of them will be wrong.

 

10. So far we've only focused on the long side of the market. What about the short side?

 

I'll first say that it typically takes a lot longer for a stock to go up than it does for it to go down. The advantage a short trader may have over a long trader is that the short trader's profits can come much quicker. However, trading the short side of a given stock can also expose the trader to other risks such as the stock suddenly becoming a takeover candidate. If such an event occurs, the stock may shoot up in response, requiring the trader to cover the short position at a price much higher than where it was initially sold short. To protect against such risk, the trader should avoid shorting stocks where there is even the remotest possibility of a takeover.

 

11. What style of trading does your educational training best support?

 

I typically like to focus on momentum or “swing” trading by analyzing price trends and patterns and combining this analysis with overbought/oversold indicator readings. Popularly known as "oscillators", overbought/oversold indicators swing from one extreme to another. As such, they are an excellent reflection of crowd psychology. As we all know, it is better to buy when everyone is bearish. We can use oscillators as a proxy for such emotional extremes.

 

12. Can you provide us with a simple but effective swing trading strategy?

 

A good strategy would be to look for stocks where price is breaking out on the upside, while at the same time the oscillator is bouncing from an oversold state and heading to overbought. I would hesitate to buy a price breakout when the oscillator is in an overbought state, as this is an indication that the stock may be running out of steam.

 

13. How to use Fibonacci retracement tools?

 

Fibonacci retracement lines are very useful in trend analysis for anticipating a pullback or a reversal in price. Pullbacks are made when a new high or low is reached. They are generally considered the riskiest of all trades and most traders are well advised to avoid them, except the most nimble. No market goes strictly in one direction. There are always ups and downs in the price. These fluctuations should be anticipated in advance. As a general rule, after a long trend has been established, it would be normal for 50% of the gains to be erased by a counter-trend move (reversal). After this counter move, the price would resume its previous trend in the same original direction.
Since the 50% value isn't that precise a target, traders bracket the counter move from 38% to 62% giving one 3 targets where the trader can take 1/3 profits at the first target(38%), 1/2 in the second (50%) and 2/3rd in the 3rd target (62%). If the counter trend move crosses this 62% target, then the market is confirmed to be a major
trend reversal and the trader should let the remaining 1/3rd run its course preferably using a SAR based stop.
Also, http://www.dacharts.com/articles/_PFT.pdf
http://www.activetradermag.com/special/cyber04july1.htm

Fibonacci Retracement

If you've been trading for any length of time, odds are that you already know all about Fibonacci relationships. Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician that gave us a particular series of numbers:

1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 etc..

To get the next number in the series, you simply add the last two numbers together. So to get the 21 at the end, we added the 13 and 8 together.

Eventually, you can divide two numbers in the sequence together to get the important Fibonacci ratio 1.618 or 0.618.

Interestingly, you can get this ratio from running a Fibonacci series using any two starting values. Just pick two numbers out of the air, say 76 and 3. Then start generating new numbers by adding the last two:

376791552343896231012 etc...


623 / 1012 is 0.6156, so we're already getting close to the 0.618 with only a few iterations of the sequence. So you can see how powerful this is.

In our trading system, we'll look at 4 different ratios:

0.618, 1.618, 0.786, and 1.27

These numbers are the same ones Larry Pesavento recommends, and have proven to be extremely important. The first two numbers in the sequence come straight from the Fibonacci series, and the second two numbers are their square roots.

For trading purposes, you simply locate an important recent high and low, find the distance between them, and mark the ratios off at the appropriate price levels.

In the chart below, you can see how the market responded when it reached important Fibonacci retracement levels:





The first retracement level was calculated using the (a - b) and caught the high at c. Next, the 1.27 retracement of (b - c) was exactly on the low at point d. FInally, the 0.786 retracement or (c - d) forced a triple top at point e.

This chart not only demonstrates the importance of Fibonacci retracement levels, but the importance of using the square roots of the original 0.618 and 1.618 ratios.

"Human expectations occur in a ratio that approaches Phi.
Changes in market prices largely reflect human opinions,
valuations and expectations. A study by mathematical
psychologist Vladimir Lefebvre demonstrated that humans
exhibit positive and negative evaluations of the opinions
they hold in a ratio that approaches phi, with 61.8%
positive and 38.2% negative."

- The Golden Number

 

14. Can you explain how the virtue of patience helps one in trading the markets?

 

In trading, timing is everything. Winning traders are patient. They know how to control their impulses so as to act decisively at the opportune moment. Rather than acting on a whim, they carefully devise a detailed trading plan, in which precise entry and exit strategies are specified, and strictly follow it. Discipline is the key to successful trading. Although discipline can be learned, some people are more disciplined and self-controlled than others. It is useful to determine whe